Daily Outlook

Oil market should be one of the focus recently. The coronavirus vaccine effectiveness, a weaker dollar, and the better economic figures are all driving such risk-on rally in oil prices. On the other hand, gold price tested $1800 level in previous sessions. Even gold price bounced back a bit on Wednesday, traders were still cautious. ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that, there is obviously a resistance near $1820 level, triggering a fast retreat on Wednesday.

Riskier currencies gained on Tuesday as investors are now rebalancing their portfolio after the rebound of the dollar. ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that, the economic data in the US was just favorable the greenback in a very short term, based on the economic recovery prospective. However, after digesting the news all around, positive sentiment hurts the safe-haven dollar.

ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that, even the vaccine sounds very positive to the market, however, investors may realize that the economies cannot be recovered as fast as expected. The market may has already “priced-in” such situation if we look at the current level of all indexes around the world. And, that may be why investor nerves are always being tested.

Gold price was the other focus on Monday as it tumbled over 5%, as much as $100 per ounce, after the positive development result. The sell-off pressure was mainly related to the risk appetite in the whole financial market, that significantly lower the safe haven demand for Gold. Furthermore, the news lowered the dovish expectation from Fed, even the other central banks, a more aggressive approach in the monetary policies, boosting the greenback. The dollar index bounced back from around 92 level, steadied at around 92.7 on Tuesday.

ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that, the weak dollar showed risk-on condition in this moment, but be aware that it may be a very volatile week, especially the NFP is coming ahead, and the arguments regarding the US election have arisen.

ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that, the market may be reacting on Trump's win. The first thing we can expect is that the China-US tensions may be rapidly escalated next year, no matter in economic, political, military and technological aspects.

Over these days, there were no new market watch in the financial market. Generally, markets were running in a ranging pattern, with no bullish or bearish driver dominated. Of course, the US election is the most eye-catching. The coming Presidential debate is the key focus this week on 22th Oct. ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said that, it would be a “super” battle as it is the last debate. The recent polls showed that Biden's support was weakened by the “email scandal＂of his son, Hunter Biden. Investors are paying close attention to the issues and how the coming polls is going.

For the investment market, traders are a bit positive towards such a big uncertainty, expecting the good side. The UK and the EU emphasized that the negotiations are making progress, but in fact, according to various source, the officials inside the EU are holding a tough attitude towards the negotiations, especially from the two big countries, Germany and France. Those voices were “no agreement may be better than a bad agreement.” So far, the latest news increased the worries as no consensus is made from both sides. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that the EU must prepare for Brexit without a deal.

Such bad news took a hard hit to Wall Street on Tuesday. The Dow closed down 1.34%, the S&P 500 lost 1.4% and the Nasdaq dropped the most, 1.57%. In the earlier US trading session, all three indexes were higher as investors were optimistic over the stimulus package, especially under the severe coronavirus outbreak situation.

While risk appetite sounds back, the dollar slipped a bit. Gold price returned to the $1880 mark area as investors seek for another haven before the “first debate”. Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump will square off later in the day (Wednesday 0900 GMT+8). It should be alerted that any wording from Trump and Biden may spark shocks.