ZFX: Asian Gold Review – Model Returns, Gold price fights Back
Trend Review : Gold prices as a whole remained in the range on Wednesday (February 12), with gains and losses on the day, fluctuating between US$8 and US$, but were clearly countering risk appetite in financial markets. Gold edged down to around $1,567.5 on Wednesday and saw downward pressure in early trading until the european market's early decline was more pronounced, falling as low as $1,561.8. However, this level once again has buy support, gold prices quickly rebounded, back to the opening price near the volatility up and down. The u.S. market's key data was not good, gold prices at one point again tried highs of $1,570.4, but ultimately failed to follow, closing at $1,565.7, down 0.12.
Fundamentals / Market News : Gold prices did not reflect the optimism of market conditions on Wednesday , but continued to show resilience as funds chased risky assets . As the investment market began to judge that the pneumonia outbreak in mainland China may be slowing, investors also turned aggressive bets, coupled with Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell reaffirmed confidence in the U.S. economic outlook to further stabilize investor confidence, the stock market is in the spotlight, the Dow, The S and P and Nasdaq index three major indexes hit new record highs.
Even so, however, the money did not flow out of the gold market. Jacob Leung, an analyst at ZFX, said the gold market had fallen slightly yesterday, out of proportion compared with other markets. Even if you look at the silver price, this week has been trying low, gold prices derailed, appear to be rather cold on the periphery.
More or less, the market has maintained its holding of gold as "insurance" to hedge against the uncertainty surrounding the development of the epidemic.
However, early thursday, the latest news of the outbreak triggered financial market turmoil, with a sudden surge of 14,840 new confirmed cases in Hubei province, China, including more than 13,000 clinical diagnoses. After the news, the stock indexes around the sharp decline, the yuan fell, oil prices fell, gold prices rose again.
ZFX analyst Jacob Leung said the pattern of the outbreak had been provoked again, with nearly 60,000 confirmed cases of pneumonia in mainland China. The numbers are bound to unsettle investors. In the short term, intraday risk aversion is fermented or theme.
Chinese officials pointed out that the number of clinically confirmed cases added should be "release of the stock", although there will still be clinical lying cases in the future, but will not necessarily maintain such an increase.
Short-term technical trend : the hour chart shows that the gold price this morning in the news to ease the whole decline, the cloud chart again good, the trend line of the fall wave is also broken, there is a possibility of a turn. Currently, the trend can still be seen as a range of $1,560-1577, which will point to $1,590 once it is broken at the top of the range.
(Cloud Ichimoku: 9,26,52; Relative Strength RSI: 10)
Support level: 1569;1564 Resistance level: 1574;1577
On the trend, the gold market will be dominated by the news surface, tending to the upward but still can drift.
Recommendation: The previous proposal 1568 short single change target 1563, has arbitrage. It is recommended to take a long short line of 1570, target 1573, stop loss 1567. (It is recommended not to consider the spread of the offer)
Risk Tip: The above contents are for informational purposes only and do not represent ZFX's position, and ZFX does not assume any form of loss arising from any trading and purchase operations conducted herein. Please firmly their own thinking, do a good job of risk control.