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ZFX: 沙特也怕了 油价前景堪忧 - Zeal Capital Market

ZFX: 沙特也怕了 油价前景堪忧

07-09-2020 10:03

基本面:

沙特在上周末调降了10月份出口的油价,可能是因二次疫情的爆发,抑或是炼油厂将原油转换成燃油的利润不佳,但都显示出了欧佩克+对近期油价持悲观的态度,如果再持续放松减产的力道,恐会令原油供给更加过剩。

ZFX分析师Steven Chen表示,美国今(7日)为劳动节假期,这也象征性代表美国夏季用油高峰期的结束。上周短暂影响油价的飓风已经远去,此次连假能否降低库存值得市场期待。但8月份为美国运输产业的寒冬,在疫情的影响之下,观光业已经近乎停摆,使得航空业大肆裁员,汽车销售量也深受其害,种种迹象彰显了燃油的需求已经趋缓,也使得美油的前景不容乐观。

技术面:

ZFX: 沙特也怕了 油价前景堪忧 - Zeal Capital Market

以小时图观察周五(4日)油价挑战42一线失败后,短线下跌将近3美元,直至39一带才寻找到短期支撑,但今(7日)开盘后空头持续发力,将低点下推至39之下。

有鉴于空方动能强烈,今日思维以高空为主。激进者可尝试在39.9(斐波那契回调位23.6%)一线建立空单,目标点位39.1、止损40.6。稳健者可等40.7(斐波那契回调位38.2%)再行介入空单,第一目标位39.9、第二目标位38.7、止损41.3。

操作建议:

激进者(Risk Lover) (约1倍ATR止损~1.5倍停利)

策略

Strategy

开仓
open position
止损
Stop-loss
目标
Take-profit
逢高做空

sell limit

39.9 40.6 39.1

稳健者(Risk Averter) (约1倍ATR止损1.5~3倍停利)

策略

Strategy

开仓
open position
止损
Stop-loss
目标
Take-profit
逢高做空

sell limit

40.7 41.3 39.9~38.7

风险提示:以上内容仅供参考,不代表ZFX立场,ZFX不承担根据本文所进行任何买卖操作而导致的任何形式损失。请坚定自己的思路,做好相应风险控制。