On Friday, investors are cautious watching the final results from the US election, even the early birds have already bet on Biden’s win these two days. Based on the latest record, Biden has racked up 253 electoral votes, closed to the White House. Few battleground states such as Arizona and Pennsylvania are the focus so far, and the prediction is favored to Biden side.
In FX market, the performance of the greenback was mixed as well. Hopes on the relief bill lowered the safe-haven demand in the market while those riskier currencies like Aussie was favored with such situation, bouncing to 0.7130 level above. On the other hand, the talk of the EU-UK deal was still uncertain, weighing on sentiment over the Euro and Sterling.
Overall, market sentiment is cautious. Traders are reviewing the risks over those issues like the UK-EU talks, the rapid spread of coronavirus, and the progress toward the US stimulus. The dollar strengthened as investors are seeking the haven currency. Dollar index hit 93.9 last night. Countries in Europe are now reimplementing lockdown measures to tackle with the surging coronavirus cases, hurting the sentiment over Sterling and Euro.
Last week, the whole market was dominated by the news surrounding the Congress and relief bill in the US. Trump suddenly stopped the negotiation, causing the drop of the markets last Tuesday, but resumed it quickly. Up to now, the White House may propose a $1.8 trillion plan, which is more likely to make the deal with the Democrats. However, some Republicans are concerning about the nation’s debt and this offer may be unfavored to the coming presidential election.
Global markets reacted well after the news. All three major indexes of Wall Street bounced around 1.6%-2.3%. The dollar, which was deemed as the “only” safe-haven recently, was weaker against those riskier currencies on Monday. At least, the return of Trump has lowered the political uncertainties in the short term.
In the coming days, political uncertainties will keep investors on guard. Only very few traders will now expect the US Congress will make any deal regarding the stimulus package, especially before the election. On the other hand, investors now also are looking forward to the first “Presidential Debate” on Tuesday, which may contribute to one of the most significant drivers of the whole financial market in October.
Some traders believe that the dollar was bolstered by the US economic data as the manufacturing figures in September and the US home sales in August were improved. On the other hand, the fears of another wave of coronavirus pandemic over Europe and the UK hurt the sentiment of the Euro and the Sterling, boosting the dollar as well. The UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, announced the reimplementation of the lockdown measures in England on Tuesday.
The European Stock markets are opening lower, as the resurgences of coronavirus pandemic added fears of another lockdown measures in those regions. The WHO warned that the situation is “very serious”, further triggering the concerns over the economic recovery of the euro zone. The total confirmed cases of Covid-19 have now passed 30 million worldwide, with more than 940000 deaths. Sterling’s move, with a very volatile night, was the focus in FX. As the BOE hinted the potential implementation of negative interest rates, the sterling sharply dropped to the low of 1.2864 on Thursday. Afterward, it was reported that the EU-UK trade deal was still possible, as the comment from the European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, boosting the sterling back to 1.3 mark.
The EU has warned the UK that the bill would hurt the trade deal ahead, and the EU will prepare for the worst, letting UK to leave without any deal. The Sterling bounced back to 1.29 level against dollar on Monday US session, but dropped back to 1.2850 area for closing. Despite improved risk appetite and the slip of dollar, Sterling is clearly bearish. The dollar index broke 93 mark again on Tuesday earlier trading session.
In FX, the dollar was steadied on Friday earlier session, after a volatile move overnight. The latest policy direction from ECB boosted the euro up to 1.1917, weakening the dollar in the US trading session. But, the tumble of the US stocks sparked risk aversion, triggering a rebound of the dollar against the major currencies.