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ZFX: 沙特也怕了 油價前景堪憂 - Zeal Capital Market

ZFX: 沙特也怕了 油價前景堪憂

07-09-2020 10:20

基本面:

沙特在上週末調降了10月份出口的油價,可能是因二次疫情的爆發,抑或是煉油廠將原油轉換成燃油的利潤不佳,但都顯示出了歐佩克+對近期油價持悲觀的態度,如果再持續放鬆減產的力道,恐會令原油供給更加過剩。

ZFX分析師Steven Chen表示,美國今(7日)為勞動節假期,這也像徵性代表美國夏季用油高峰期的結束,上週短暫影響油價的颶風已經遠去,此次連假能否降低庫存值得市場期待。但8月份為美國運輸產業的寒冬,在疫情的影響之下,觀光業已經近乎停擺,使得航空業大肆裁員,汽車銷售量也深受其害,種種跡象彰顯了燃油的需求已經趨緩,也使得美油的前景不容樂觀。

技術面:

ZFX: 沙特也怕了 油價前景堪憂 - Zeal Capital Market

以小時圖觀察週五(4日)油價挑戰42一線失敗後,短線下跌將近3美元,直至39一帶才尋找到短期支撐,但今(7日)開盤後空頭持續發力,將低點下推至39之下。

有鑑於空方動能強烈,今日思維以高空為主。激進者可嘗試在39.9(斐波那契回調位23.6%)一線建立空單,目標點位39.1、止損40.6。穩健者可等40.7(斐波那契回調位38.2%)再行介入空單,第一目標位39.9、第二目標位38.7、止損41.3。

操作建議:

激進者(Risk Lover) (約1倍ATR止損1.5停利)

策略

Strategy

開倉
open position
止損
Stop-loss
目標
Take-profit
逢高做空

sell limit

39.9 40.6 39.1

穩健者(Risk Averter) (約1倍ATR止損1.5~3倍停利)

策略

Strategy

開倉
open position
止損
Stop-loss
目標
Take-profit
逢高做空

sell limit

40.7 41.3 39.9~38.7

風險提示:以上內容僅供參考,不代表ZFX立場,ZFX不承擔根據本文所進行任何買賣操作而導致的任何形式損失。請堅定自己的思路,做好相應風險控制。