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金銀比歷史高位 預示重大危機 - Zeal Capital Market

金銀比歷史高位 預示重大危機

18-03-2020 09:10

隨著全球金融市場動盪,商品之一的白銀同樣崩潰,雖黃金也較高位跌250美元之多,但幅度明顯有別,導致黃金與白銀比率 (金銀比) 升至123水平,創下歷史新高。

新冠狀病毒全球大流行,越來越多國家採取封閉隔離措施,預計對全球經濟帶來不能避免的傷害,不論亞歐美三地,都受到相當大的衝擊,股市以及商品市場首當其衝。

不少分析員注意到,金銀比創出歷史,同時預示金融市場遇到大危機,並可能出現「通縮」問題。分析相信,通常在通脹預期下降的時候,金銀比就會上升。通脹預期下降會迫使各地央行減息應對,而低利率會推高金價,同時因經濟前景暗淡,對工業需求占比較大的白銀,是重大利空。即使通脹預期下降,或甚至通縮,對黃金都是利空,但黃金表現也大多好過白銀。