{"id":227805,"date":"2021-04-12T10:08:09","date_gmt":"2021-04-12T10:08:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/?post_type=market_outlook&#038;p=227805"},"modified":"2021-04-12T10:09:37","modified_gmt":"2021-04-12T10:09:37","slug":"share774125","status":"publish","type":"market_outlook","link":"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/market-outlook\/share774125\/","title":{"rendered":"\u725b\u5e02\u8fd8\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u4e45?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u80a1\u7ee7\u7eed\u7834\u9876\uff0c\u9053\u6307\u548c\u6807\u666e500\u53c8\u521b\u9ad8\u4f4d\u4e86\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5f88\u591a\u58f0\u97f3\u5fe7\u8651\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u4f46\u4ece\u53ef\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u6765\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u60c5\u7eea\u4ecd\u7136\u72c2\u70ed\uff0c\u5c1a\u672a\u89c1\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f88\u786e\u5b9e\u7684\u718a\u5e02\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u3002\u867d\u7136\u7f8e\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u53ea\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u7206\u53d1\u51fa\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-227806\" src=\"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/word-image-94.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1834\" height=\"760\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/word-image-94-300x124.png 300w, https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/word-image-94-1024x424.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/word-image-94-768x318.png 768w, https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/word-image-94-1536x637.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/word-image-94.png 1834w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1834px) 100vw, 1834px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u725b\u5e02\u8f6c\u4e3a\u718a\u5e02\u7684\u8981\u70b9\u6709\u597d\u51e0\u4e2a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4eca\u65f6\u4eca\u65e5\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5426\u6709\u524d\u8f66\u53ef\u9274\u503c\u5f97\u4fdd\u7559\u3002\u591a\u6570\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u53ef\u770b\u770b\u5e02\u76c8\u7387(\u5373PE\uff0c\u6216\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4)\u3002\u6a61\u6811\u8d44\u672c(Oaktree Capital)\u5171\u540c\u521b\u529e\u4eba\u970d\u534e\u9a6c\u514b\u65af(Howard Marks) \u4ee5\u5386\u53f2\u6807\u51c6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u666e\u904d\u80a1\u4ef7\u786e\u5b9e\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u300c\u75af\u72c2\u300d\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u76ee\u524dS&amp;P 500\u6307\u6570\u7684PE\u4e3a 22 \u500d\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u5e73\u5747\u503c 15-16 \u500d\u3002Marks \u8ba4\u4e3aS&amp;P 500\u4f30\u503c\u4e0d\u592a\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5229\u7387\u73af\u5883\u3001\u672a\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c55\u671b\u53ca\u9ad8\u589e\u957f\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82e5\u4e0d\u75af\u72c2\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u7ee7\u7eed\u725b\u5e02\u4e86\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u5931\u671b\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u718a\u5e02\u4e86\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\u4e00\u5207\u4e5f\u89c6\u4e4e\u6295\u8d44\u5e02\u573a\u600e\u6837\u5224\u65ad\u600e\u6837\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u5229\u7387\u53ca\u901a\u80c0\u8d70\u9ad8\u65f6\u4ecd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5c31\u7b97\u5168\u7403\u592e\u884c\u90fd\u4e0d\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u4f30\u503c\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86\u7684\u7f8e\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u6298\u7b97\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ecd\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u538b\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u5229\u7387\u6765\u4f30\u7b97\u76ee\u524d\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u82e5\u5e72\u5e74\u540e\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u626c\uff0c\u52bf\u5fc5\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u6e90\u5934\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e5f\u4e0d\u96be\u770b\u51fa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u4ecd\u5728\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e0a\u8c03\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u5c31\u7b97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u6ca1\u6709\u8f6c\u5f31\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u8981\u4e0d\u7b26\u5fc3\u5934\u91cc\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u718a\u5e02\u4e5f\u53ef\u8bf4\u6765\u5c31\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a2020\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u62e5\u62a4\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\uff0c\u9ad8\u589e\u957f\u7684\u671f\u671b\u4ee4\u5176\u4f30\u503c\u666e\u904d\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5c11\u7eb3\u5165\u4e86\u6307\u6570\u91cc\u7684\u6210\u5206\u80a1\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u8bf4\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\uff02\u9ad8\uff02\u671f\u671b\u53c8\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u5151\u73b0\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edd\u5bf9\u5173\u952e\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1824\" height=\"773\" class=\"wp-image-227824\" src=\"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/word-image-96.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/word-image-96-300x127.png 300w, https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/word-image-96-1024x434.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/word-image-96-768x325.png 768w, https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/word-image-96-1536x651.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/word-image-96.png 1824w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1824px) 100vw, 1824px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u77ed\u4e2d\u957f\u4e09\u7ebf\u5982\u4f55\u62c5\u5fc3\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e5f\u597d\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u7b56\u7565\u90e8\u7f72\u7684\u8003\u8651\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u9996\u8981\u6dd8\u91d1\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u9700\u8981\u601d\u524d\u60f3\u540e\u3002\u5c31\u7b97\u76ee\u524d\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u9ad8\u3001\u5f88\u9ad8\u3001\u8fd8\u662f\u8fc7\u9ad8\uff0c\u5c31\u5f53\u662f\u8d44\u91d1\u884c\u60c5\u6240\u63a8\u52a8\uff0c\u8981\u505a\u7684\u662f\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u505c\u4f4f\u811a\u6b65\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u6ce1\u6cab\u7206\u7834\u4e4b\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8c01\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u638c\u63a7\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u98ce\u9669\u63d0\u793a<\/strong><strong>:<\/strong><strong>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5185\u5bb9\u4ec5\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868<\/strong><strong>ZFX<\/strong><strong>\u7acb\u573a\uff0c<\/strong><strong>ZFX<\/strong><strong>\u4e0d\u627f\u62c5\u6839\u636e\u672c\u6587\u6240\u8fdb\u884c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e70\u5356\u64cd\u4f5c\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u5f62\u5f0f\u635f\u5931\u3002\u8bf7\u575a\u5b9a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u601d\u8def\uff0c\u505a\u597d\u76f8\u5e94\u98ce\u9669\u63a7\u5236\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>ZFX<\/strong><strong>\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5468\u4e00\u81f3\u5468\u4e94\u5747\u4f1a\u53d1\u5e03\u6bcf\u5929\u65b0\u95fb\u603b\u7ed3\uff0c\u8bf7\u5373\u6536\u85cf<\/strong>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/market-news\/\"><strong>ZFX<\/strong><strong>\u8d22\u7ecf\u65b0\u95fb\u9875<\/strong><\/a><strong>\uff0c\u901f\u8bfb\u6bcf\u65e5\u5e02\u573a\u65b0\u95fb\uff01<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5173\u4e8e<\/strong><strong><u>\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/\"><strong>ZFX\u00a0<\/strong><strong>\u5c71\u6d77\u8bc1\u5238<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u53d7FSA\u76d1\u7ba1\uff0c\u8363\u83b7\u00a0Financial Weekly 2019\u5e74 \u6700\u4f73\u4ea4\u6613\u5e73\u53f0<\/li>\n<li>\u63d0\u4f9b100+\u00a0\u79cd\u4ea4\u6613\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u5305\u62ec<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/products\/forex\/\"><strong>\u5916\u6c47<\/strong><\/a>\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/products\/shares\/\"><strong>\u80a1\u7968<\/strong><\/a>\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/products\/indices\/\"><strong>\u6307\u6570<\/strong><\/a>\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/products\/commodities\/\"><strong>\u9ec4\u91d1<\/strong><\/a>\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/products\/commodities\/\"><strong>\u539f\u6cb9<\/strong><\/a>\u7b49<\/li>\n<li>\u4e09\u79cd<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/accounts\/\"><strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u5e10\u6237<\/strong><\/a>\uff0c\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e0d\u540c\u5ba2\u6237\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u9700\u6c42<\/li>\n<li>\u96f6\u4f63\u91d1\u3001\u4f4e\u4ef7\u5dee\uff0c\u6760\u6746\u7387\u9ad8\u8fbe1 : 2000<\/li>\n<li>\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6bcf\u79d2\u6267\u884c50,000\u8ba2\u5355<\/li>\n<li>\u6700\u4f4e\u5165\u91d150\u7f8e\u91d1\u5373\u53ef\u5f00\u6237<\/li>\n<li>24\u5c0f\u65f6<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/about-zfx\/contact-us\/\"><strong>\u4e2d\u6587\u5ba2\u6237\u670d\u52a1<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4ece\u725b\u5e02\u8f6c\u4e3a\u718a\u5e02\u7684\u8981\u70b9\u6709\u597d\u51e0\u4e2a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4eca\u65f6\u4eca\u65e5\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5426\u6709\u524d\u8f66\u53ef\u9274\u503c\u5f97\u4fdd\u7559\u3002\u591a\u6570\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u53ef\u770b\u770b\u5e02\u76c8\u7387(\u5373PE\uff0c\u6216\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4)\u3002\u6a61\u6811\u8d44\u672c(Oaktree Capital)\u5171\u540c\u521b\u529e\u4eba\u970d\u534e\u9a6c\u514b\u65af(Howard Marks) \u4ee5\u5386\u53f2\u6807\u51c6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u666e\u904d\u80a1\u4ef7\u786e\u5b9e\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u300c\u75af\u72c2\u300d\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u76ee\u524dS&amp;P 500\u6307\u6570\u7684PE\u4e3a 22 \u500d\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u5e73\u5747\u503c 15-16 \u500d\u3002Marks \u8ba4\u4e3aS&amp;P 500\u4f30\u503c\u4e0d\u592a\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5229\u7387\u73af\u5883\u3001\u672a\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c55\u671b\u53ca\u9ad8\u589e\u957f\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":100,"featured_media":227815,"template":"","market_outlook_categories":[11923,11929],"market_outlook_tags":[],"class_list":["post-227805","market_outlook","type-market_outlook","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","market_outlook_categories-analyst-insights-zh-hans-2","market_outlook_categories-daily-outlook-zh-hans-2"],"acf":[],"current_lang":"zh-hans","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_outlook\/227805","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_outlook"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/market_outlook"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/100"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_outlook\/227805\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/227815"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=227805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"market_outlook_categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_outlook_categories?post=227805"},{"taxonomy":"market_outlook_tags","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/market_outlook_tags?post=227805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}